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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 02 February 15
INDONESIA'S ADARO ENERGY PRODUCED 56.21 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2014; UP 8% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: PT. Adaro Energy, Indonesia’s largest coal producer, has increased coal production by 8% to 56.21 million tonnes (Mt) from both ...
Monday, 02 February 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP PICKS UP W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.81 (-1.36%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 0.18&nb ...
Monday, 02 February 15
SOUTH KOREA'S KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 280K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 280,000 MT of Sub-bituminous coal coa ...
Sunday, 01 February 15
INDONESIA-TO-INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN WEAK NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall reached lowest levels since 1986 this week.
The BDI declined 15.55 pct to 608 points on Friday 30, Ja ...
Friday, 30 January 15
CONTANGO AND TANKERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Like an invitation to a dance, the word contango may have some people flustered, but for tanker owners this market phenome ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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