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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 28 January 15
CAPES CONTINUED THEIR UPWARD MOVEMENT LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market displayed a mirror performance of that of the week prior, with the Capesize market correcting further upwards and ...
Tuesday, 27 January 15
Q1 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 47.87 FOR WEEK ENDING JAN. 23
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 gain week over week and declined month on month.
The Q1 swap has decline US$ 0.9 ...
Tuesday, 27 January 15
Q2 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP 4.5% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.28 per MT (-0.54%) month over month and increased US$ 1.23 ( ...
Monday, 26 January 15
OVERSUPPLY, AMPLE STOCKPILES, AND LACKLUSTER UNDERLYING STEEL DEMAND KEPT COKING COAL PRICES LOW IN 2014
COALspot.com: Coking coal prices (FOB & CFR) fell 15% and 18% respectively during the year, amidst persistent oversupply, ample inventory and s ...
Monday, 26 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY Q2 COAL SWAP CLOSED LOWER THAN Q1 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has fell ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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