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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 January 15
PANAMAX MARKET MOVED SIDEWAYS OVERALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment in which the week prior ended carried on through-out last week as well, the end of which marked the first posi ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
SHIFT IN INTERNATIONAL COAL TRADE TO THE PACIFIC BASIN WILL CONTINUE - IMF
COALspot.com: The shift in international coal trade to the Pacific Basin will continue, IMF said in its latest Medium-Term Coal Market Report.
...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS, INTERMODAL
The World Bank has lowered its forecast for global growth in 2015 to 3% down from its previous level of 3.4% amid rising concerns over the economic ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
THERMAL COAL PRICE OUTLOOK DEPENDENT ON INDIAN IMPORT DEMAND - MATTHEW BOYLE, CRU
COALspot.com: Supply and demand side developments in India will be an important determinant of future market dynamics and prices for thermal coal a ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 16.19% ON MONTH TO 15.80 MIL MT IN DECEMBER' 14
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.136 billi ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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