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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 4% LOWER THAN Q1 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has f ...
Sunday, 18 January 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up 4.51 pct week on week on Friday 16, January 2015. The BDI closed at 741 points on this Friday after gaining arou ...
Friday, 16 January 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.3% W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 15 January 15
PANAMAX : MARKET CONTINUE ON LOW PACE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
On a general basis we can say that rates are softening in both hemispheres. Although for some specific trades we can see premiums being ach ...
Thursday, 15 January 15
LOW CASH COSTS, GOOD LIQUIDITY HELP ASIAN OIL COMPANIES IN PRICE ROUT - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says that rated oil and gas production companies in Asia can comfortably operate under low oil prices for some time given their gener ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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