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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 11 January 15
BDI DECLINED 8% ON WEEK; BCI LOST 31%
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its decline in the first week of this year or lost 8 pct week over week. The BDI was closed at 709 points whi ...
Friday, 09 January 15
U.S. EASTERN SPOT STEAM COAL PRICES FELL IN 2014; ROSE IN WEST - EIA
U.S. Eastern spot steam coal prices declined in 2014 compared to 2013 levels because of a decline in steam coal exports.
According to U.S. Ene ...
Friday, 09 January 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP AN ESTIMATED 2.2% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 08 January 15
INDONESIA PRESSES ON WITH HIGHER COAL ROYALTY FEE TO BOOST STATE REVENUE - JG
The Indonesian government is pressing on with its plan to raise the royalty charged to coal miners in order to increase state revenue, but the move ...
Wednesday, 07 January 15
FUEL EFFICIENT SHIPS MAKE LESS SENSE IN LOWER BUNKER PRICE MARKET, BUT FUEL COSTS ARE BOUND TO RISE AGAIN
The shipping industry entered 2015 on mixed emotions, as a relatively buoyant tanker market is met by a rather lackluster dry bulk market. Still, a ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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