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Wednesday, 14 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In Oil we trust! The Barrel price has declined by almost a third in comparison to the 2014 January and has being on the downhill since early last summer. As the world starts to witness the difference at the pump, US investors and countries with a high production cost are starting to feel the heat.
OPEC seems to be engaged in a game of “Chicken” with the US in order to bully and discourage any further investment in the sector as well as to force production to be reduced. An analysis by Wood Mackenzie involving more than 2,200 oil fields (responsible for the total production of 75 million barrels per day) came to the conclusion that, at a Brent price of USD 40 per barrel, approximately 1,5 million barrels (1,6%) are cash negative. But, so far, there is no sign of any decrease in production. 1,5 million barrels might not be enough to put a dent but it is still early.
Another reason that has contributed to the fall of the oil price is the prolonged European recession combined with the overall intention of the EU to slowly move away from oil. Coupled with the slowdown of the Asian economies, especially China’s and Indonesia’s, demand has dropped on a global scale.
Oversupply has done its part too. Technology has given access to reserves that were not reachable before; thus finding and producing oil is a lot more efficient now. Canada and the US have poured billions for domestic production development over the past few years. The US alone is at a 30 year high with a staggering 9 million barrels per day. Iran is back producing after the sanctions were lifted, and now Libya is steadily increasing its output after years of political instability. Both countries are in need of cash and with no intention of slowing down. All these have increased supply further.
Adding all of the above to the pile has created a perfect storm that has lead prices to a free fall, the duration of which is impossible to gauge. Predicting or even speculating if the demand will pick up or the supply will decrease is not wise and is not feasible nonetheless. However, in my humble opinion, oversupply and the poor demand are currently playing at least a supporting role in this scene.
Undoubtedly, the OPEC policy is mostly responsible for the plummet. US investors and bond money are getting cold feet and their resilience is tested with every passing day. Time will tell until when they will be willing to brave the uncertainty or even to support a loss. On the other hand however, US money is not known to fold easily especially when the stakes are high.
The interesting part is that in all this volatility and uncertainty, the shipping industry has seen an opportunity and is reaping the benefits. Bunker prices have dropped after years of firm levels, giving a breather for spot traders and charterers and the tanker market has seen a rate increase that has put a smile on many faces. Eventually there will be a correction, but for now shipping seems to be a winner.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 30 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ALMOST FLAT AT -0.2%
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Monday, 29 December 14
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS: REGULATORY RISKS? - CLARKSONS
In recent years, Chinese seaborne coal imports have surged, registering average growth of 67% p.a. between 2009 and 2013 to total 265mt. However, t ...
Monday, 29 December 14
BULK MARKET ENDS YEAR ON SOUR NOTE, SHIPBROKER SEES 'BUMPY ROAD AHEAD' - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2014 was supposed to be the year that the dry bulk market would stage a comeback and a sustainable one for that matter. However, while for the most ...
Monday, 29 December 14
Q1'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $59.42
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3.51 (-5.58%) month over month and US$ 0.08 (-0.13%) ...
Monday, 29 December 14
SGX'S FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS IMPROVED W-O-W, LOST M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.44 per MT (-2.73%) month over month and gained US$ 0.36 (+0.71%) ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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