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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 28 November 14
NEW BIMCO CLAUSE AIMS TO REDUCE SUPPLIERS' RELIANCE ON SHIP ARREST FOR CHARTERERS' UNPAID BUNKERS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Ship owners can, on occasion, find themselves in the invidious position of suffering unexpected loss of hire due to a tim ...
Friday, 28 November 14
JSW ENERGY AND GRM RESOURCES JOIN GLOBALCOAL
COALspot.com: globalCOAL® announced yesterday that two new Market Members have joined its online coal trading platform. According globaCOAL&rsq ...
Thursday, 27 November 14
MINING SERVICES TAX SPIKED BY 233% - BISNIS INDONESIA
COALspot.com: The Energy and Mineral Resources Department of Indonesia said the tax contribution from mining services sector in the 3rd Q 2014 ...
Thursday, 27 November 14
PANAMAX : EXPECTATION'S FOR A STRONG END OF YEAR RUSH, DISAPPEAR DAY BY DAY - FEARNLEYS
Handy
“We have experienced a firming market the last couple of weeks. More activity from cargo owners in the Atlantic and less available to ...
Wednesday, 26 November 14
OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE PUSHED PANAMAX SEGMENT DOWN FOR ANOTHER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market managed to reverse its course from the week prior and with the sole exception of the Panamax segment, we witnesse ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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