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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 02 December 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS LOST MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has lost U ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL Q1' 15 DELIVERY SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 49.50
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.4 ...
Monday, 01 December 14
SGX'S FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 52.50
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.50 on 28 November after losing US$ 1.20 (-2.23%) month ove ...
Monday, 01 December 14
Q2' 15 DELIVERY CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED 0.42% LOWER THAN Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 2.45 (-3.78%) month over month and US$ 0.67 (-1.06%) we ...
Sunday, 30 November 14
SUPRAMAX COAL FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA : FIRM
COALspot.com: The BDI fell 171 points and closed at 1153 points on Friday 28 November 2014. The Cape index also lost 887 points and closed at 2151 ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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