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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 03 December 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The dry bulk market seems unable to turn sentiment round and is still looking for direction. The BCI's 887-point free fall last week had an obv ...
Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
KEY PLAYERS SHED NEW PERSPECTIVES ON COAL MARKETS
Press Release: Singapore’s ONLY and longest established Coal Trade event. Whilst Coal prices remain challenging, there is widespread consensu ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 585,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1'15
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) is inviting bids for the supply of 585,000 Metric Tons of coal. According to invitation, 5700 ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 1.4% WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) o ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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