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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 08 December 14
GOVERMENT TO WITHDRAW CNC STATUS OVER SUSPECTED FLAWS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to review the clean and clear (CnC) status held by ...
Monday, 08 December 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SLIP W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.10 on 5 December after losing US$ 0.55 (-1.04%) month over ...
Sunday, 07 December 14
SUPRAMAX S8 ROUTE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall as cape index fell heavily week on week.
The BDI lost around14.83 pct within last five working day an ...
Saturday, 06 December 14
TANKER FLOATING STORAGE PLAYS COULD COME INTO PLAY IF VLCC RATES STAY AT CURRENT LEVEL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Contango: A phenomenon in commodities futures price curves where the delivery price of a futures contract is greater than the current price. With t ...
Saturday, 06 December 14
MUNDRA PORT MAKES HISTORY BY HANDLING THE LARGEST BULK CARRIER TO CALL ON WEST COAST OF INDIA
COALspot.com: Adani Ports & SEZ Ltd, India’s largest port developer and part of Adani Group, yesterday said its Mundra Port successf ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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