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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 15 December 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP LOST $3.37 M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3,37 (-5.33%) month over month and US$ 1.58 (-2.57%) ...
Monday, 15 December 14
Q1' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 51.45 ON 12 DEC
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.74%) closed at US$ 51.45 on 12 December month over ...
Sunday, 14 December 14
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a measure of commodity-shipping costs, fell 12.12 pct to 863 points week ending 12 December 2014.
Th ...
Friday, 12 December 14
LIMITED TRADING AND AN OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE PUSHED HANDY SIZE SHIPS TO DOWN IN USG
Handy
We have seen the TA spot market come down this week lead by limited trading and an oversupply of tonnage in the USG, Fearnleys said in its ...
Friday, 12 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 3.4% W/E DECEMBER 6
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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