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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 16 December 14
THIS PRICE IS A STEAL - EVA TZIMA
COALspot.com: Despite concerns that the slowdown of the Chinese economy would affect imports of iron ore, it seems that this has not been the case ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 65.60 PMT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.18 (-0.27%) month on month ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CONTINUES ITS FALL
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 1.7 ...
Monday, 15 December 14
WILL TANKERS BENEFIT FROM REEMERGENCE OF FLOATING STORAGE PLAYS? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The tanker market has been seeing high freight rates for some time now, riding on the back of low oil prices, which are boosting demand from develo ...
Monday, 15 December 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CRASHES THROUGH $65
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in December. HBA for t ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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