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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 23 December 14
SHIPOWNERS ARE FINALIZING MORE DEALS AS YEAR END COMES CLOSER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
With the 2014 year just a few days before waving goodbye, shipowners are looking to close their pending deals in both the newbuilding and S&P m ...
Monday, 22 December 14
Q2'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 0.30 LOWER THAN Q1'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3.67 (-5.81%) month over month and US$ 0.35 (-0.58%) ...
Monday, 22 December 14
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS ARE HEADING SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.71 per MT (-3.24%) and closed at US$ 51.02 on 19 December month ...
Sunday, 21 December 14
PANAMAX COAL FREIGHT FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA FALLS FURTHER
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall as cape index lost heavily week on week.
The BDI was down 6.95 percent week over week and closed at 8 ...
Friday, 19 December 14
HOW WILL LOWER BUNKER PRICES AFFECT THE SUBSTANTIAL OVERCAPACITY IN DRY BULK MARKET? - BIMCO
As bunker fuel costs have come down from USD 600 per tonnes to USD 330 per tonnes in the past 6 months, much talk about increased ship speed have s ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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