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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 29 December 14
SGX'S FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS IMPROVED W-O-W, LOST M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.44 per MT (-2.73%) month over month and gained US$ 0.36 (+0.71%) ...
Friday, 26 December 14
SHIPS FACE LOWER SULPHUR FUEL REQUIREMENTS IN EMISSION CONTROL AREAS FROM 1 JANUARY 2015 - IMO
Ships trading in designated emission control areas will have to use on board fuel oil with a sulphur content of no more than 0.10% from 1 January 2 ...
Wednesday, 24 December 14
CAPE DEMAND WAS STILL EXTREMELY SOFT THIS PAST WEEK ACROSS BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The performance of the Dry Bulk market, which found itself in desperate search of support for yet another week, has left very little ...
Tuesday, 23 December 14
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED 48 CENTS IN ONE WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lo ...
Tuesday, 23 December 14
Q4'15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL $ 3.85 IN A MONTH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 2.13 (-3.17%) month on month ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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