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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 29 December 14
SGX'S FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS IMPROVED W-O-W, LOST M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.44 per MT (-2.73%) month over month and gained US$ 0.36 (+0.71%) ...
Friday, 26 December 14
SHIPS FACE LOWER SULPHUR FUEL REQUIREMENTS IN EMISSION CONTROL AREAS FROM 1 JANUARY 2015 - IMO
Ships trading in designated emission control areas will have to use on board fuel oil with a sulphur content of no more than 0.10% from 1 January 2 ...
Wednesday, 24 December 14
CAPE DEMAND WAS STILL EXTREMELY SOFT THIS PAST WEEK ACROSS BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The performance of the Dry Bulk market, which found itself in desperate search of support for yet another week, has left very little ...
Tuesday, 23 December 14
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED 48 CENTS IN ONE WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lo ...
Tuesday, 23 December 14
Q4'15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL $ 3.85 IN A MONTH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 2.13 (-3.17%) month on month ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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