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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 03 January 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 11.2% TO 17.6 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 01 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CLOSED AT $63.47 PMT ON 26 DEC, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.37 (-4. ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
COASTAL ENERGEN (C&O) COMMENCES 1ST UNIT OF 1200 MW POWER PLANT IN INDIA
COALspot.com: Coastal Energen, part of the Coal & Oil Group, announced last week the commissioning and commencement of power production at the ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL Q2' 15 DELIVERY SWAP CLOSED 1.03% LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 15 DELIVERY PRICE - SGX
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 1.35 (-2 ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
SHIP PRICES KEEP ON FALLING, SALES COME EARLY FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship prices keep on falling on the back of low freight rates. According to the latest report from shipbroker Allied Shipbroking, January sales seem ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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