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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 05 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 2.50 (-4.02%) month over month and gained US$ 0.20 ( ...
Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predictin ...
Monday, 05 January 15
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2014 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat different ...
Monday, 05 January 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1'15 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 0.45 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 0.60 per MT (-1.15%) month over month and gained US$ 0.02 (+0.04%) ...
Sunday, 04 January 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUES ITS DECLINE IN 2015
Wish you all a very Happy New Year 2015. The last report was dated 19th Dec 2014 and due to Christmas and new year holidays no reports were publish ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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