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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 30 December 14
INDIA INC TO BENEFIT AS IMPORTED COAL PRICES SET TO FALL - RAHUL PRITHIANI
The Hindu: India‘s coal import volumes are set to rise by over 30 per cent over the next two years to 214 million tonnes in 2015-16, as domes ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ALMOST FLAT AT -0.2%
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Monday, 29 December 14
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS: REGULATORY RISKS? - CLARKSONS
In recent years, Chinese seaborne coal imports have surged, registering average growth of 67% p.a. between 2009 and 2013 to total 265mt. However, t ...
Monday, 29 December 14
BULK MARKET ENDS YEAR ON SOUR NOTE, SHIPBROKER SEES 'BUMPY ROAD AHEAD' - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2014 was supposed to be the year that the dry bulk market would stage a comeback and a sustainable one for that matter. However, while for the most ...
Monday, 29 December 14
Q1'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $59.42
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3.51 (-5.58%) month over month and US$ 0.08 (-0.13%) ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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