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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 07 January 15
FUEL EFFICIENT SHIPS MAKE LESS SENSE IN LOWER BUNKER PRICE MARKET, BUT FUEL COSTS ARE BOUND TO RISE AGAIN
The shipping industry entered 2015 on mixed emotions, as a relatively buoyant tanker market is met by a rather lackluster dry bulk market. Still, a ...
Wednesday, 07 January 15
2015 IS RIDDLED WITH CHALLENGES FOR THE SHIPPING SECTOR, MOST NOTABLY THE DRY BULK MARKET - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the new year has now set foot for real, many are still looking to detect what’s in store for the various shipping markets, with the first ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
SHIPPING MUST ADOPT CAN-DO ATTITUDE IN 2015 - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping needs to adopt a can-do attitude in order to successfully meet the challenges which are likely to come its way in 2015.
Shipping part ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
Q4' 15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 1.81% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.74 (-1.51%) m ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS LOST W-O-W AND M-O-M, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.52 (-5. ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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