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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 19 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION REACHED APPROXIMATELY 19.8 MMST; UP 1.0% WOW
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 19 December 14
HANDY: SOFTER TONE; PANAMAX: QUIET WEEK; CAPESIZE; PAINFUL WEEK
Handy
A softer tone for rates and volumes for the Supras, perhaps less apparent in the Pacific the last week before the season holidays and good ...
Thursday, 18 December 14
INDONESIA TO REVISE UP COAL OUTPUT TARGET TO 460 MILLION TONS IN 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian government has revised up its next year coal output forecast to 460 million tons from its previous forecast of 421 million ...
Wednesday, 17 December 14
CAPES RATES SLIPPED BELOW $5,600/DAY, FELL 84% YOY
COALspot.com: In the very rare occurrence when the BCI stands below the BDI, words to describe market sentiment are probably poor, said Intermodal ...
Wednesday, 17 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL SHANGHAI, SNP TEAM
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, we are all witness to the second hand market prices softening day by day. Any new deal surfacing t ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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