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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past year ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FISCAL BREAKEVEN OIL PRICES SHOW SOVEREIGN VULNERABILITY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The vulnerability of the sovereign credit profiles of net oil exporters, as shown by their fiscal breakeven oil prices, suggests that ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
UK: TRIBUNAL RULES ON SPEED AND PERFORMANCE CLAIMS UNDER TWO CONSECUTIVE TIME CHARTERPARTIES - REED SMITH
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
“Owners not to be responsible if the vessel under the currency of this charter party stays at port or anchorage or ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 68.20
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 gained month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has gain ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 49.55
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, gained week on week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.12 (-0.24%) ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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