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Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
 The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly depends on where you stand… which was your bet-horse in other words.
The negative sentiment that has been prevailing in the dry bulk market lately leaves most owners with a rather bitter taste following the free fall of the past weeks. Enquiry levels remain low and we observe with great concern the everyday softening that takes place in the Capesize segment, with the BCI touching new historical lows daily, since its introduction in March 1999. In the past four weeks we have seen the index dropping from above 3,000 points to well below 500 points, while the average T/C for the segment has moved from $23,000/day to below $4,900/day. What a drop! If one considers that most Capes run their OPEX in excess of $10k/day and the level of CAPEX for those Capes acquired at 100mil USD then it goes without saying that some owners and their banks are facing hard times ahead. The drop in second-hand prices is also evident, with prices approaching the levels we witnessed back in December 2012 and January 2013, while every new deal is marking a lower last done, which is also the benchmark for the negotiation of the next sale candidate.
It was this time two years ago, in our brokers insight once more just before the Xmas holidays that we mentioned that we are facing low ship values that pose a great opportunity for anyone proceeding with purchases to possibly achieve an asset play. Buy low sell higher! And yes that was the case. Definitely we were no prophets, nor in a possession of a crystal bowl. It was just a clear observation of market fundamentals, and the shipping business cycles that always bring these spikes and enable investors to better ride the waves of the cycle.
So what are the fundamentals now? Bunker prices are at a 5 year low, the Japanese Yen reached a seven year low against the US Dollar, the Euro to the Dollar may be soon approaching 1.15 according to some, the Russian economy presently looks Rubbled... sorry meant troubled, iron ore prices are phenomenally low, China’s softening appetite in November has been weighing down on Capes and mineral export bans from Indonesia hurt further the Pacific trade. At the same time the scrap price offered in China is at $220-$230/ton and price levels have also been dropping sharply in the Indian Subcontinent. Most notably, the overall scrap activity for 2014 is 30% less than that of last year, while newbuilding ordering in 2014 is almost 50% down compared to 2013 levels.
A very simplistic approach says that during a bad market when freight rates suffer, the normal is that ship prices correct. Definitely some owners lose their sleep during this period, however others are seeing this as a golden opportunity to buy low, support their investment until rates improve and once their asset gains in value, lock in the profits. Bankers always say that a business proposal should be viable with all figures “adding-up” positively… however these proposals never take into account the value of asset play. A business deal in which you are buying low, is usually one taking place in a freight environment which doesn’t make sense for a banker to invest in, but is usually the one that will most probably offer the opportunity to asset play.
Fasten your seatbelt, the cycle ahead might be bumpy. My best and warmest wishes to all of you and all friends and colleagues that have been showing their continual support throughout the years.
” Kali Chronia” as we say in Greece!
By ohn N. Cotzias, Intermodal SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 24 November 14
CHOPPY WATERS IN DRY BULK - SGX
COALspot.com: Dry bulk freight rates have experienced a sharp rise in volatility in recent weeks as bulk commodity supply has ramped up, said SGX i ...
Monday, 24 November 14
Q1 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.73
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.73 on 21 November after losing US$ 0.40 (-0.75%) month ove ...
Monday, 24 November 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL: Q2' 15 COAL SWAPS CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 0.63 (-0.99%) month over month and US$ 0.12 (-0.19%) da ...
Sunday, 23 November 14
SPOT FREIGHT RATES IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up 5.41 pct week on week and closed at 1,324 points on Friday. All the segments were up this week except Panamax index.&n ...
Sunday, 23 November 14
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS TO DROP BY 11% IN 2014 - ASSOCARBONI
COALspot.com: Italy’s steam coal imports expected to drop to 16 million tons in 2014 (-11% compared to 2013); coking coal imports to plunge t ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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