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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 22 November 14
THE FALL IN BUNKER PRICES REDUCE FUEL COSTS SIGNIFICANTLY - BIMCO, PETER SAND
For a ship that burns 24 tonnes of fuel per day while steaming, fuel costs are reduced by as much as USD 1 million a year if current price level st ...
Saturday, 22 November 14
DRY BULKERS NEWBUILDING DELIVERIES REACHED 11.8 MILLION DWT DURING THIRD QUARTER, NET FLEET GROWTH FOR 2014 TO REACH 5% - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has rebounded since its less than impressive performance since the start of the year, but overall, third quarter figures could ...
Friday, 21 November 14
BUMI ENTERS INTO CONDITIONAL SALE & PURCHASE AGREEMENT TO SELL FBS STAKE
COALspot.com: PT Bumi Resources Tbk, one of the Indonesia's largest coal producers confirms that it has executed a Conditional Sale and Purchas ...
Friday, 21 November 14
U.S LAST WEEK'S COAL PRODUCTION STAYS FLAT W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a pot ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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