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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 20 November 14
HANDY: INDO ROUNDS ARE BEING FIXED IN REGION OF US$ 10K - FEARNLEYS
Handy
In the Atlantic we have experienced firmer rates this week much lead by the grain activity out of USG. Vsls open in the USG can achieve in ...
Thursday, 20 November 14
DEMAND FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS INCREASES ON THE BACK OF HEIGHTENED FREIGHT RATE MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners are looking to take advantage of favorable market conditions through the acquisition of more dry bulk carriers. According to shipbroker ...
Wednesday, 19 November 14
INDONESIA FUEL-PRICE RISE A CLEAR, POSITIVE REFORM SIGNAL - FITCH
COALspot.com: Indonesia's hike of more than 30% in administered fuel prices, announced on 17 November, provides a clear, positive signal of the ...
Wednesday, 19 November 14
CAPES WERE UNDER PRESSURE; LOST 20% WITHIN A WEEK
COALspot.com: " The negative environment in which the week prior ended, marked this past week as well, which closed off on Friday noting the f ...
Wednesday, 19 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - BY KATERINA RESTIS
The current Ebola outbreak in West Africa has been declared as a worldwide health emergency by the World Health Organization and has had a great im ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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