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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 November 14
CHOPPY WATERS IN DRY BULK - SGX
COALspot.com: Dry bulk freight rates have experienced a sharp rise in volatility in recent weeks as bulk commodity supply has ramped up, said SGX i ...
Monday, 24 November 14
Q1 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.73
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.73 on 21 November after losing US$ 0.40 (-0.75%) month ove ...
Monday, 24 November 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL: Q2' 15 COAL SWAPS CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 0.63 (-0.99%) month over month and US$ 0.12 (-0.19%) da ...
Sunday, 23 November 14
SPOT FREIGHT RATES IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up 5.41 pct week on week and closed at 1,324 points on Friday. All the segments were up this week except Panamax index.&n ...
Sunday, 23 November 14
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS TO DROP BY 11% IN 2014 - ASSOCARBONI
COALspot.com: Italy’s steam coal imports expected to drop to 16 million tons in 2014 (-11% compared to 2013); coking coal imports to plunge t ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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