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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 30 November 14
SUPRAMAX COAL FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA : FIRM
COALspot.com: The BDI fell 171 points and closed at 1153 points on Friday 28 November 2014. The Cape index also lost 887 points and closed at 2151 ...
Friday, 28 November 14
NEW BIMCO CLAUSE AIMS TO REDUCE SUPPLIERS' RELIANCE ON SHIP ARREST FOR CHARTERERS' UNPAID BUNKERS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Ship owners can, on occasion, find themselves in the invidious position of suffering unexpected loss of hire due to a tim ...
Friday, 28 November 14
JSW ENERGY AND GRM RESOURCES JOIN GLOBALCOAL
COALspot.com: globalCOAL® announced yesterday that two new Market Members have joined its online coal trading platform. According globaCOAL&rsq ...
Thursday, 27 November 14
MINING SERVICES TAX SPIKED BY 233% - BISNIS INDONESIA
COALspot.com: The Energy and Mineral Resources Department of Indonesia said the tax contribution from mining services sector in the 3rd Q 2014 ...
Thursday, 27 November 14
PANAMAX : EXPECTATION'S FOR A STRONG END OF YEAR RUSH, DISAPPEAR DAY BY DAY - FEARNLEYS
Handy
“We have experienced a firming market the last couple of weeks. More activity from cargo owners in the Atlantic and less available to ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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