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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 02 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 1.4% WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) o ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS LOST MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has lost U ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL Q1' 15 DELIVERY SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 49.50
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.4 ...
Monday, 01 December 14
SGX'S FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 52.50
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.50 on 28 November after losing US$ 1.20 (-2.23%) month ove ...
Monday, 01 December 14
Q2' 15 DELIVERY CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED 0.42% LOWER THAN Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 2.45 (-3.78%) month over month and US$ 0.67 (-1.06%) we ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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