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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 06 December 14
MUNDRA PORT MAKES HISTORY BY HANDLING THE LARGEST BULK CARRIER TO CALL ON WEST COAST OF INDIA
COALspot.com: Adani Ports & SEZ Ltd, India’s largest port developer and part of Adani Group, yesterday said its Mundra Port successf ...
Friday, 05 December 14
CHINESE SPECIAL STEEL MAKERS' RISK PROFILES MORE RESILIENT - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says the risk profiles of Chinese makers of special steel, especially high-end products, are more like those of manufacturers and mor ...
Friday, 05 December 14
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION REACHED AROUND 905 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 04 December 14
CAPE MARKET IS DEVELOPING FROM BAD TO WORSE
Handy
The Atlantic market has been pretty stable and balanced this week, Fearnleys AS says in its latest weekly report.
The broker furt ...
Thursday, 04 December 14
DRY BULK MARKET; ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK
COALspot.com: For those who have been hoping to see alignment of freight direction across the Dry Bulk market, this must have been another disappoi ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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