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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 December 14
PROGRESSING SMELTER PROJECTS IN INDONESIA
Press Release: Indonesia’s ban on ‘raw mineral export’ that was designed to encouraging downstream investment in mineral processi ...
Wednesday, 03 December 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The dry bulk market seems unable to turn sentiment round and is still looking for direction. The BCI's 887-point free fall last week had an obv ...
Wednesday, 03 December 14
CAPESIZE DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTER 2015 WITH MIXED FORTUNES, WITH A POSITIVE AND A NEGATIVE SCENARIO BOTH EMERGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future of the Capesize dry bulk market appears to be engulfed from mixed “feelings” among analysts and market participants, despite ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
KEY PLAYERS SHED NEW PERSPECTIVES ON COAL MARKETS
Press Release: Singapore’s ONLY and longest established Coal Trade event. Whilst Coal prices remain challenging, there is widespread consensu ...
Tuesday, 02 December 14
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 585,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1'15
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) is inviting bids for the supply of 585,000 Metric Tons of coal. According to invitation, 5700 ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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