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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 09 December 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FELL 1.8% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.84 (-2.91%) month over month and US$ 0.95 (-1.52%) we ...
Monday, 08 December 14
GOVERMENT TO WITHDRAW CNC STATUS OVER SUSPECTED FLAWS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to review the clean and clear (CnC) status held by ...
Monday, 08 December 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SLIP W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.10 on 5 December after losing US$ 0.55 (-1.04%) month over ...
Sunday, 07 December 14
SUPRAMAX S8 ROUTE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall as cape index fell heavily week on week.
The BDI lost around14.83 pct within last five working day an ...
Saturday, 06 December 14
TANKER FLOATING STORAGE PLAYS COULD COME INTO PLAY IF VLCC RATES STAY AT CURRENT LEVEL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Contango: A phenomenon in commodities futures price curves where the delivery price of a futures contract is greater than the current price. With t ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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