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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 15 December 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CRASHES THROUGH $65
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in December. HBA for t ...
Monday, 15 December 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP LOST $3.37 M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3,37 (-5.33%) month over month and US$ 1.58 (-2.57%) ...
Monday, 15 December 14
Q1' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 51.45 ON 12 DEC
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.74%) closed at US$ 51.45 on 12 December month over ...
Sunday, 14 December 14
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a measure of commodity-shipping costs, fell 12.12 pct to 863 points week ending 12 December 2014.
Th ...
Friday, 12 December 14
LIMITED TRADING AND AN OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE PUSHED HANDY SIZE SHIPS TO DOWN IN USG
Handy
We have seen the TA spot market come down this week lead by limited trading and an oversupply of tonnage in the USG, Fearnleys said in its ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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