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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL SHANGHAI, SNP TEAM
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, we are all witness to the second hand market prices softening day by day. Any new deal surfacing t ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
THIS PRICE IS A STEAL - EVA TZIMA
COALspot.com: Despite concerns that the slowdown of the Chinese economy would affect imports of iron ore, it seems that this has not been the case ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 65.60 PMT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.18 (-0.27%) month on month ...
Tuesday, 16 December 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CONTINUES ITS FALL
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 1.7 ...
Monday, 15 December 14
WILL TANKERS BENEFIT FROM REEMERGENCE OF FLOATING STORAGE PLAYS? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The tanker market has been seeing high freight rates for some time now, riding on the back of low oil prices, which are boosting demand from develo ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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