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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 23 December 14
Q4'15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL $ 3.85 IN A MONTH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 2.13 (-3.17%) month on month ...
Tuesday, 23 December 14
SHIPOWNERS ARE FINALIZING MORE DEALS AS YEAR END COMES CLOSER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
With the 2014 year just a few days before waving goodbye, shipowners are looking to close their pending deals in both the newbuilding and S&P m ...
Monday, 22 December 14
Q2'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 0.30 LOWER THAN Q1'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3.67 (-5.81%) month over month and US$ 0.35 (-0.58%) ...
Monday, 22 December 14
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS ARE HEADING SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.71 per MT (-3.24%) and closed at US$ 51.02 on 19 December month ...
Sunday, 21 December 14
PANAMAX COAL FREIGHT FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA FALLS FURTHER
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall as cape index lost heavily week on week.
The BDI was down 6.95 percent week over week and closed at 8 ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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