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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 30 December 14
INDIA INC TO BENEFIT AS IMPORTED COAL PRICES SET TO FALL - RAHUL PRITHIANI
The Hindu: India‘s coal import volumes are set to rise by over 30 per cent over the next two years to 214 million tonnes in 2015-16, as domes ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ALMOST FLAT AT -0.2%
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Monday, 29 December 14
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS: REGULATORY RISKS? - CLARKSONS
In recent years, Chinese seaborne coal imports have surged, registering average growth of 67% p.a. between 2009 and 2013 to total 265mt. However, t ...
Monday, 29 December 14
BULK MARKET ENDS YEAR ON SOUR NOTE, SHIPBROKER SEES 'BUMPY ROAD AHEAD' - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2014 was supposed to be the year that the dry bulk market would stage a comeback and a sustainable one for that matter. However, while for the most ...
Monday, 29 December 14
Q1'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $59.42
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 3.51 (-5.58%) month over month and US$ 0.08 (-0.13%) ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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