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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 05 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased by US$ 2.50 (-4.02%) month over month and gained US$ 0.20 ( ...
Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predictin ...
Monday, 05 January 15
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2014 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat different ...
Monday, 05 January 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1'15 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 0.45 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 0.60 per MT (-1.15%) month over month and gained US$ 0.02 (+0.04%) ...
Sunday, 04 January 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUES ITS DECLINE IN 2015
Wish you all a very Happy New Year 2015. The last report was dated 19th Dec 2014 and due to Christmas and new year holidays no reports were publish ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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