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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 12 January 15
SHIPPING - CHALLENGES AND RESOLUTIONS - EVA TZIMA
Last year has without a doubt been another challenging one both for both our industry and our country. As Greece is currently dominated by election ...
Sunday, 11 January 15
BDI DECLINED 8% ON WEEK; BCI LOST 31%
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its decline in the first week of this year or lost 8 pct week over week. The BDI was closed at 709 points whi ...
Friday, 09 January 15
U.S. EASTERN SPOT STEAM COAL PRICES FELL IN 2014; ROSE IN WEST - EIA
U.S. Eastern spot steam coal prices declined in 2014 compared to 2013 levels because of a decline in steam coal exports.
According to U.S. Ene ...
Friday, 09 January 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP AN ESTIMATED 2.2% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 08 January 15
INDONESIA PRESSES ON WITH HIGHER COAL ROYALTY FEE TO BOOST STATE REVENUE - JG
The Indonesian government is pressing on with its plan to raise the royalty charged to coal miners in order to increase state revenue, but the move ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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