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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 07 January 15
FUEL EFFICIENT SHIPS MAKE LESS SENSE IN LOWER BUNKER PRICE MARKET, BUT FUEL COSTS ARE BOUND TO RISE AGAIN
The shipping industry entered 2015 on mixed emotions, as a relatively buoyant tanker market is met by a rather lackluster dry bulk market. Still, a ...
Wednesday, 07 January 15
2015 IS RIDDLED WITH CHALLENGES FOR THE SHIPPING SECTOR, MOST NOTABLY THE DRY BULK MARKET - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the new year has now set foot for real, many are still looking to detect what’s in store for the various shipping markets, with the first ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
SHIPPING MUST ADOPT CAN-DO ATTITUDE IN 2015 - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping needs to adopt a can-do attitude in order to successfully meet the challenges which are likely to come its way in 2015.
Shipping part ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
Q4' 15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 1.81% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.74 (-1.51%) m ...
Tuesday, 06 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS LOST W-O-W AND M-O-M, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.52 (-5. ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
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