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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 03 January 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 11.2% TO 17.6 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 01 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CLOSED AT $63.47 PMT ON 26 DEC, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 3.37 (-4. ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
COASTAL ENERGEN (C&O) COMMENCES 1ST UNIT OF 1200 MW POWER PLANT IN INDIA
COALspot.com: Coastal Energen, part of the Coal & Oil Group, announced last week the commissioning and commencement of power production at the ...
Wednesday, 31 December 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL Q2' 15 DELIVERY SWAP CLOSED 1.03% LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 15 DELIVERY PRICE - SGX
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 1.35 (-2 ...
Tuesday, 30 December 14
SHIP PRICES KEEP ON FALLING, SALES COME EARLY FOR SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship prices keep on falling on the back of low freight rates. According to the latest report from shipbroker Allied Shipbroking, January sales seem ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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