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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 29 December 14
SGX'S FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS IMPROVED W-O-W, LOST M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 1.44 per MT (-2.73%) month over month and gained US$ 0.36 (+0.71%) ...
Friday, 26 December 14
SHIPS FACE LOWER SULPHUR FUEL REQUIREMENTS IN EMISSION CONTROL AREAS FROM 1 JANUARY 2015 - IMO
Ships trading in designated emission control areas will have to use on board fuel oil with a sulphur content of no more than 0.10% from 1 January 2 ...
Wednesday, 24 December 14
CAPE DEMAND WAS STILL EXTREMELY SOFT THIS PAST WEEK ACROSS BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The performance of the Dry Bulk market, which found itself in desperate search of support for yet another week, has left very little ...
Wednesday, 24 December 14
MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS, INTERMODAL SNP BROKER
The year is coming to an end, and we should be able to assess if this was a good year, a bad year, or even a lousy one? The answer clearly de ...
Tuesday, 23 December 14
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP GAINED 48 CENTS IN ONE WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and gained week over week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lo ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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