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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 19 December 14
HOW WILL LOWER BUNKER PRICES AFFECT THE SUBSTANTIAL OVERCAPACITY IN DRY BULK MARKET? - BIMCO
As bunker fuel costs have come down from USD 600 per tonnes to USD 330 per tonnes in the past 6 months, much talk about increased ship speed have s ...
Friday, 19 December 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION REACHED APPROXIMATELY 19.8 MMST; UP 1.0% WOW
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 19 December 14
HANDY: SOFTER TONE; PANAMAX: QUIET WEEK; CAPESIZE; PAINFUL WEEK
Handy
A softer tone for rates and volumes for the Supras, perhaps less apparent in the Pacific the last week before the season holidays and good ...
Thursday, 18 December 14
INDONESIA TO REVISE UP COAL OUTPUT TARGET TO 460 MILLION TONS IN 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian government has revised up its next year coal output forecast to 460 million tons from its previous forecast of 421 million ...
Wednesday, 17 December 14
CAPES RATES SLIPPED BELOW $5,600/DAY, FELL 84% YOY
COALspot.com: In the very rare occurrence when the BCI stands below the BDI, words to describe market sentiment are probably poor, said Intermodal ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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