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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 13 January 15
MORE PITFALLS FOR OWNERS LOOKING TO TERMINATE FOR UNPAID HIRE - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is a debatable point whether or not the obligation to pay hire under a time charter is a condition of the contract or ...
Tuesday, 13 January 15
Q2 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED 8.66% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined by US$ 3.48 (-5.73%) month over month and US$ 2.35 (-3.94%) week ...
Tuesday, 13 January 15
Q1' 2015 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN Q2 & Q4 2015 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 7.21 ...
Monday, 12 January 15
COAL: LOW PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE A SUPPLY-DRIVEN RECOVERY IN THE MEDIUM TERM - SGX
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices dropped to six-year lows in 2014 driven by persistent oversupply, SGX says in its “ Commodities 2014 - A ye ...
Monday, 12 January 15
FREIGHT MARKET: 2015 FLEET SUPPLY GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF CARGO GROWTH - SGX
COALspot.com: The dry bulk freight market was forced to digest a number of negatives in 2014 leading the Baltic Dry Index to fall 66% through the y ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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