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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 19 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 4% LOWER THAN Q1 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has f ...
Sunday, 18 January 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up 4.51 pct week on week on Friday 16, January 2015. The BDI closed at 741 points on this Friday after gaining arou ...
Friday, 16 January 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.3% W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 15 January 15
PANAMAX : MARKET CONTINUE ON LOW PACE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
On a general basis we can say that rates are softening in both hemispheres. Although for some specific trades we can see premiums being ach ...
Thursday, 15 January 15
LOW CASH COSTS, GOOD LIQUIDITY HELP ASIAN OIL COMPANIES IN PRICE ROUT - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says that rated oil and gas production companies in Asia can comfortably operate under low oil prices for some time given their gener ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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