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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 January 15
DRY BULK MARKET NOTED ANOTHER WEEKLY DECLINE - INTERMODAL
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Wednesday, 14 January 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 46.97 PMT
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The Q1 swap has fell US$ 1.53 (-3.15 ...
Wednesday, 14 January 15
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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