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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDIA TO SURPASS THE UNITED STATES AND BECOME THE SECOND-LARGEST COAL CONSUMER IN THE WORLD BY 2019 - IMF
COALspot.com: In 2013, coal added more primary energy than any other fuel and was the fastest-growing fossil fuel, enhancing its position as the se ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT SEEN RISING, DESPITE FALL IN ITS PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week, but Indonesian Coal Output Seen Rising. T ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY DECLINED 2.83% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.83%) month over month and US$ 0.50 (-0.99%) we ...
Monday, 19 January 15
HBA FALL TO FRESH LOWS; COAL OVERSUPPLY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 63.84. T ...
Monday, 19 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAIN WEAK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.37 (-5.63%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.74 (-1.29%) ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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