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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 26 January 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CONTINUE TO SLIDE M-O-M; ROSE W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.79 (-1.33%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 2.10&nb ...
Sunday, 25 January 15
PANAMAX FREIGHT RATES STILL FALLING
COALspot.com: The BDI was slightly down this week to 720 points. The BDI lost 2.83 pct week on week.
The cape index continued its upward trend ...
Friday, 23 January 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FOR WEEK ENDING JAN. 17 UP 2.5%
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.4 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 22 January 15
PANAMAX: A SOFTER TONE AND OVERALL A SLUGGISH MARKET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy and supra market has experienced yet another week with slow activity and softening rates in both hemispheres, broker Fearnleys AS ...
Thursday, 22 January 15
BUMI RESOURCES POSTS NET INCOME OF $13.3 MILLION 9M-2014
COALspot.com: Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s largest coal miner, reported today that, the company has recorded a net income of $13.3 million for ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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