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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 30 January 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION REACHED 65.7 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 30 January 15
CAN BULKER CONVERSIONS SPOIL THE TANKER MARKET'S PARTY? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Oversupply of tonnage has always been in the back of the head of ship owners when it comes to taking advantage of favorable market conditions. As s ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CHINA ENERGY DEMAND MUST BE REVIEWED DUE TO FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC CHANGES - WOOD MACKENZIE
New patterns emerging as energy demand growth decoupled significantly from GDP growth for the first time in 2014
Wood Mackenzie says 2014 was ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CAPE MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH LOW DEMAND AND LOW COMMODITY PRICES
Handy
Supramax rates are heading south with slipping rates all across the block. USG activity is slow with mid-week levels in the mid 8.000s, Fea ...
Wednesday, 28 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
With most traders having returned to action from year end festivities, we have already seen signs of activity in the specialized product markets. L ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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