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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 28 January 15
CAPES CONTINUED THEIR UPWARD MOVEMENT LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market displayed a mirror performance of that of the week prior, with the Capesize market correcting further upwards and ...
Tuesday, 27 January 15
Q1 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 47.87 FOR WEEK ENDING JAN. 23
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 gain week over week and declined month on month.
The Q1 swap has decline US$ 0.9 ...
Tuesday, 27 January 15
Q2 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP 4.5% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.28 per MT (-0.54%) month over month and increased US$ 1.23 ( ...
Monday, 26 January 15
OVERSUPPLY, AMPLE STOCKPILES, AND LACKLUSTER UNDERLYING STEEL DEMAND KEPT COKING COAL PRICES LOW IN 2014
COALspot.com: Coking coal prices (FOB & CFR) fell 15% and 18% respectively during the year, amidst persistent oversupply, ample inventory and s ...
Monday, 26 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY Q2 COAL SWAP CLOSED LOWER THAN Q1 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has fell ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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