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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 02 February 15
INDONESIA'S ADARO ENERGY PRODUCED 56.21 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2014; UP 8% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: PT. Adaro Energy, Indonesia’s largest coal producer, has increased coal production by 8% to 56.21 million tonnes (Mt) from both ...
Monday, 02 February 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP PICKS UP W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.81 (-1.36%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 0.18&nb ...
Monday, 02 February 15
SOUTH KOREA'S KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 280K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 280,000 MT of Sub-bituminous coal coa ...
Sunday, 01 February 15
INDONESIA-TO-INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN WEAK NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall reached lowest levels since 1986 this week.
The BDI declined 15.55 pct to 608 points on Friday 30, Ja ...
Friday, 30 January 15
CONTANGO AND TANKERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Like an invitation to a dance, the word contango may have some people flustered, but for tanker owners this market phenome ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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