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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 09 February 15
Q2' CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.28% TO $ 56.92 W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.93 (-3.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.10 (-0 ...
Sunday, 08 February 15
BDI FELL CONTINUOUSLY HIT A THREE DECADES LOW
COALspot.com: This week Baltic Exchange Dry Freight Index (BDI) fell continuously hit a three decades low.
The BDI continuously fell and was d ...
Friday, 06 February 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP AN ESTIMATED 1.1% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 20.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 06 February 15
SHIP DAMAGED BY FIRE CAUSED BY PIRATES FOUND TO BE CONSTRUCTIVE TOTAL LOSS - TAYLOR WESSING
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The High Court was asked to determine a number of preliminary issues, including whether a vessel was a constructive total ...
Thursday, 05 February 15
BDI HAS NOW FALLEN A LEVEL CLOSE TO THE INDEX'S HISTORIC LOW - INTERMODAL
They say a picture is worth a thousand words and in this instance just one look at the tables above is enough to understand the great pressure the ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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