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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 10 February 15
IRON ORE MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN 2015: PRICE FORECAST $70/T - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: With January witnessing the price of iron ore falling to its lowest levels since May 2009, Roger Emslie, Principal Metals & ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ADVANCES 3.79% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 0.85 (+1.81%) month o ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK OVER WEEK, RAISING HOPES?
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.95 per MT (+1.91%) week over week and declined US$ 0.06 (-0.12%) ...
Monday, 09 February 15
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS BEST POSITIONED IN OVERSUPPLIED MARKET; US MINES MOST AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
In a 2015 global coal outlook report, Wood Mackenzie says that Australia and Indonesian coal suppliers will see some upside in the difficult months ...
Monday, 09 February 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP GAINS 3.65% TO ONE-MONTH HIGH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and day on day.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 2.1 ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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