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Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
 The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past years we have been trained to curb our enthusiasm amidst positive news. Any efforts to be reservedly optimistic aside, though, the reality is that starting from mid-summer the tanker market has seen spot rates take a significant step up and as we are now well into the last quarter, it seems that the year will end with rates at levels exceeding expectations especially as the winter has only just begun.
The softening price of oil has without a doubt been the key reason for exports of crude oil to heat up, while the positive impact on freight rates due to favorable bunker prices has been the cherry on the top side-effect that has allowed for the highest TCEs in years in many routes. Amidst pressures on the Saudis from other OPEC members that have much to lose from this recent softening and US shale oil producers that will have to use whatever means of influence available to them to sustain their competitiveness, most analysts have cut down their forecasts for 2015 but still see prices stabilizing above current levels.
Russia and Venezuela were already reported to have started discussions about joint action to shield prices from a further softening, while at the same time speculation that OPEC who are meeting in a couple of days, will have no choice but to go ahead and cut its production, is growing quickly. This could provide oil prices some floor in the medium term but as production by non-OPEC members accelerates and could well fill part of the void created from decreased OPEC production, the fate of tanker freight rates is most likely to come down to demand…and supply. Demand for oil and supply of tonnage.
Projected oil demand growth is expected to increase next year according to IEA’s latest report that bases their estimation on “the improvement of the macroeconomic backdrop”. Central banks appear determined to keep supporting growth, while the recent cut of the benchmark interest rate in China is an explicit move towards the same direction and already partly responsible for an upward correction in the price of oil among other commodities as well. If healthy demand levels are sustained in 2015, they should offer support to freight rates during the year apart from any recovery that could take place in the price of oil itself.
But when it comes to the supply of tonnage, things are not pointing towards the same direction across all size segments. MR tankers currently sit on a 21% orderbook, 50% of which is expected to be delivered next year, while a small percentage of the fleet is currently older than 20 years and potential scrapping candidates, which makes things for the sector heavily glutted especially when compared to the less than 5% orderbook of LR1s. Over at the crude side, Aframaxes have the lowest orderbook, estimated at 7%, while Suezmaxes and VLs are looking at orderbook of 11% and 14.6% respectively.
Buying interest in the sector has already revived during the past couple of months, even in the case of MRs, which could sooner rather than later face some downward pressure amidst weakening fundamentals in the refining industry in Europe. Should the favorable environment of late keep supporting tanker rates we expect more potential buyers to get back into action in the next couple of months and possibly inspire newbuilding ordering as well, in which case segments with lower orderbooks will be naturally better shielded in case the freight market corrects downwards or better positioned for higher earnings in case we continue enjoying rates at these levels.
By Eva Tzima
Intermodal Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 15 February 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUALLY DIPPED IN RED
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index continues its decline and fell 5.18 pct to 530 points week on week due to falling commodity prices and declining ...
Saturday, 14 February 15
SHALE GAS AND TIGHT OIL ARE COMMERCIALLY PRODUCED IN JUST FOUR COUNTRIES - EIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The United States, Canada, China, and Argentina are currently the only four countries in the world that are producing com ...
Friday, 13 February 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SHOWS 10% DECLINE
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 13 February 15
SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED SHIP OWNERS SQUEEZED OUT OF THE MARKET ON CRASHING DRY BULK MARKET AND EUROZONE CRISIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Financing issues have started to tighten the noose in the throats of small and medium-size ship owners, who were already facing problems over the p ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
CAPESIZE: THE BEST DESCRIPTION FOR THE MARKET IS, FLAT - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The handy and supra market is also being affected by the marginal volume of activity in the commodity sales. We see a small upturn in the T ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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